Ask the pod whether answering its key offer keeps the paddles alive

`probe unlock` — the experiment §2.3.3 ends on, not an implementation.

The pod offers a compressed P-256 point and gives up on us when we do not
answer; the paddle bits freeze while the D-pad keeps reporting. What a
working client writes back is the half no capture has, and the public
descriptions are all of the older Play hardware — different message
types, an uncompressed key, a different channel.

But the offer looks like the handshake we already know, moved into a
protobuf envelope: its field 2 is `0x02030000`, and `RESPONSE_START` —
the pod's confirmed cleartext reply marker — is `[0x02, 0x03]`. That
makes the client side a short list rather than a search, and the device
is a perfect oracle: either a paddle edge arrives after the cliff or one
does not, every run, in two minutes.

So the command sends one candidate per run — `ours` (00 09, what we
already write), `play` (01 02, the 2023 client marker), `echo` (02 03,
in case field 2 names the suite rather than the speaker) — and reports
HELD, FAILED or INCONCLUSIVE. Omitting `--candidate` answers nothing and
measures the cliff this pod actually has, which is the control every
result needs.

The verdict deliberately refuses to call a failure from silence: it needs
the D-pad still reporting while the paddles do not, because a pod nobody
touched proves nothing and a dropped link is void rather than negative.

Field 3 of the offer — 40 or 60 bytes, unexplained — is omitted from the
reply. If it is load-bearing no candidate will hold, and that is a
finding too.

p256 is a dependency of the probe alone. The app takes no crypto
dependency on a guess.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

Cargo.lock

@@ -222,6 +222,12 @@ version = "1.5.1"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "f2032f911046de80f0a198e0901378627c33f59ea0ac00e363d481118bd70a53"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "base16ct"
+version = "0.2.0"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "4c7f02d4ea65f2c1853089ffd8d2787bdbc63de2f0d29dedbcf8ccdfa0ccd4cf"
+
 [[package]]
 name = "base64"
 version = "0.21.7"
@@ -308,6 +314,8 @@ dependencies = [
  "bikecontrol-core",
  "btleplug",
  "futures",
+ "p256",
+ "rand_core",
  "tokio",
  "tracing",
  "tracing-subscriber",
@@ -641,6 +649,12 @@ dependencies = [
  "crossbeam-utils",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "const-oid"
+version = "0.9.6"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "c2459377285ad874054d797f3ccebf984978aa39129f6eafde5cdc8315b612f8"
+
 [[package]]
 name = "cookie"
 version = "0.18.1"
@@ -724,6 +738,18 @@ version = "0.8.22"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "61803da095bee82a81bb1a452ecc25d3b2f1416d1897eb86430c6159ef717c17"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "crypto-bigint"
+version = "0.5.5"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "0dc92fb57ca44df6db8059111ab3af99a63d5d0f8375d9972e319a379c6bab76"
+dependencies = [
+ "generic-array",
+ "rand_core",
+ "subtle",
+ "zeroize",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "crypto-common"
 version = "0.1.7"
@@ -893,6 +919,16 @@ dependencies = [
  "tokio",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "der"
+version = "0.7.10"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "e7c1832837b905bbfb5101e07cc24c8deddf52f93225eee6ead5f4d63d53ddcb"
+dependencies = [
+ "const-oid",
+ "zeroize",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "deranged"
 version = "0.5.8"
@@ -962,6 +998,7 @@ checksum = "9ed9a281f7bc9b7576e61468ba615a66a5c8cfdff42420a70aa82701a3b1e292"
 dependencies = [
  "block-buffer",
  "crypto-common",
+ "subtle",
 ]
 
 [[package]]
@@ -1103,6 +1140,25 @@ version = "1.17.0"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "9e5e8f6c15a24b9a3ee5efec809ccd006d3b30e8b3bb63c39af737c7f87daa1d"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "elliptic-curve"
+version = "0.13.8"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "b5e6043086bf7973472e0c7dff2142ea0b680d30e18d9cc40f267efbf222bd47"
+dependencies = [
+ "base16ct",
+ "crypto-bigint",
+ "digest",
+ "ff",
+ "generic-array",
+ "group",
+ "hkdf",
+ "rand_core",
+ "sec1",
+ "subtle",
+ "zeroize",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "embed-resource"
 version = "3.0.11"
@@ -1212,6 +1268,16 @@ dependencies = [
  "simd-adler32",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "ff"
+version = "0.13.1"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "c0b50bfb653653f9ca9095b427bed08ab8d75a137839d9ad64eb11810d5b6393"
+dependencies = [
+ "rand_core",
+ "subtle",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "field-offset"
 version = "0.3.6"
@@ -1505,6 +1571,7 @@ checksum = "85649ca51fd72272d7821adaf274ad91c288277713d9c18820d8499a7ff69e9a"
 dependencies = [
  "typenum",
  "version_check",
+ "zeroize",
 ]
 
 [[package]]
@@ -1637,6 +1704,17 @@ dependencies = [
  "system-deps",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "group"
+version = "0.13.0"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "f0f9ef7462f7c099f518d754361858f86d8a07af53ba9af0fe635bbccb151a63"
+dependencies = [
+ "ff",
+ "rand_core",
+ "subtle",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "gtk"
 version = "0.18.2"
@@ -1731,6 +1809,24 @@ version = "0.4.3"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "7f24254aa9a54b5c858eaee2f5bccdb46aaf0e486a595ed5fd8f86ba55232a70"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "hkdf"
+version = "0.12.4"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "7b5f8eb2ad728638ea2c7d47a21db23b7b58a72ed6a38256b8a1849f15fbbdf7"
+dependencies = [
+ "hmac",
+]
+
+[[package]]
+name = "hmac"
+version = "0.12.1"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "6c49c37c09c17a53d937dfbb742eb3a961d65a994e6bcdcf37e7399d0cc8ab5e"
+dependencies = [
+ "digest",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "html5ever"
 version = "0.38.0"
@@ -2706,6 +2802,16 @@ dependencies = [
  "pin-project-lite",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "p256"
+version = "0.13.2"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "c9863ad85fa8f4460f9c48cb909d38a0d689dba1f6f6988a5e3e0d31071bcd4b"
+dependencies = [
+ "elliptic-curve",
+ "primeorder",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "pango"
 version = "0.18.3"
@@ -2916,6 +3022,15 @@ version = "0.1.1"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "925383efa346730478fb4838dbe9137d2a47675ad789c546d150a6e1dd4ab31c"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "primeorder"
+version = "0.13.6"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "353e1ca18966c16d9deb1c69278edbc5f194139612772bd9537af60ac231e1e6"
+dependencies = [
+ "elliptic-curve",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "proc-macro-crate"
 version = "1.3.1"
@@ -3008,6 +3123,15 @@ version = "6.0.0"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "f8dcc9c7d52a811697d2151c701e0d08956f92b0e24136cf4cf27b57a6a0d9bf"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "rand_core"
+version = "0.6.4"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "ec0be4795e2f6a28069bec0b5ff3e2ac9bafc99e6a9a7dc3547996c5c816922c"
+dependencies = [
+ "getrandom 0.2.17",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "raw-window-handle"
 version = "0.6.2"
@@ -3253,6 +3377,19 @@ version = "1.2.0"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "94143f37725109f92c262ed2cf5e59bce7498c01bcc1502d7b9afe439a4e9f49"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "sec1"
+version = "0.7.3"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "d3e97a565f76233a6003f9f5c54be1d9c5bdfa3eccfb189469f11ec4901c47dc"
+dependencies = [
+ "base16ct",
+ "der",
+ "generic-array",
+ "subtle",
+ "zeroize",
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "selectors"
 version = "0.36.1"
@@ -3625,6 +3762,12 @@ version = "0.11.1"
 source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
 checksum = "7da8b5736845d9f2fcb837ea5d9e2628564b3b043a70948a3f0b778838c5fb4f"
 
+[[package]]
+name = "subtle"
+version = "2.6.1"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "13c2bddecc57b384dee18652358fb23172facb8a2c51ccc10d74c157bdea3292"
+
 [[package]]
 name = "swift-rs"
 version = "1.0.7"
@@ -5527,6 +5670,12 @@ dependencies = [
  "synstructure",
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "zeroize"
+version = "1.9.0"
+source = "registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index"
+checksum = "e13c156562582aa81c60cb29407084cdb54c4164760106ab78e6c5b0858cf64e"
+
 [[package]]
 name = "zerotrie"
 version = "0.2.4"