docs: full data-grounded rewrite of the performance report

Replaces narrative claims with verified numbers across all report pages:

- Cross-model held-out validation (LVFace/mbf/r18, all 5 held-out
  films): LVFace wins every film outright, not just "consistent with"
  the training-set pick. r50 dropped from the detailed comparison
  (gallery has ~30% fewer reference images per actor than the other
  three models on identical source photos).
- Per-film training breakdown: LVFace does not win every training
  film (mbf beats it on Lord of War); the 75.3% macro figure hides a
  10.7pp spread.
- Gallery coverage computed per film (20.3%-78.6%) instead of one
  flat 67%-missing average.
- Found and fixed a real scoring bug in optimize.py: a candidate
  whose hardest film's replay timed out was averaged over survivors
  instead of penalized, silently rewarding partial coverage. Affected
  3 of 16 training combos; corrected throughout, and optimize.py now
  scores an incomplete evaluation f1=0.0 instead of averaging over
  whichever films happened to finish.
- Every FPI frame in the deep dive now comes from the proper montage
  renderer (Onscreen/Offscreen panel, ghosts never drawn as boxes),
  never the bare-box debug overlay used earlier.
- Every distinct out-of-cast name across all 9 films gets its own
  frame at its first appearance (9 names, 4 films), not a
  single-example spot check: 2 ground-truth gaps, 1 photograph
  misread as a person, 6 genuine lookalike confusions.
- New methodology.md: the scene-level-vs-per-second scoring mismatch
  that the rest of the report assumes, written out once.
- Cut the deadlock/gdb debugging narrative from the experiment log;
  kept the one fact that matters (KPN's node/network split lets the
  expensive GPU stage run once and the cheap stage replay against
  cached embeddings).
- Plain declarative style throughout, no em dashes, no blog voice.

docs/methodology.md

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+# How we score against X-Ray
+
+Every number in this report, every F1 and misID count, comes from one
+comparison. The comparison has a mismatch at its core that shapes nearly
+every finding in this report: the ground truth is scene-level, the
+pipeline's output is per-second, and the two do not mean the same thing.
+This page documents that comparison once, so the findings pages can rely on
+it without re-explaining it.
+
+## What Amazon X-Ray records
+
+X-Ray ships three tables per film: `scenes.csv` (a list of `[start, end]`
+timespans), `people_in_scenes.csv` (which actors are credited in each
+scene), and `people.csv` (actor identities). There is no per-frame or
+per-second annotation anywhere in X-Ray. A scene might run 45 seconds, and
+X-Ray records one cast list for the entire span, not "on screen from
+second 12 to second 30."
+
+To compare this against per-second predictions, `second_score.py` expands
+every scene into per-second ground truth by copying the whole scene's cast
+list onto every second inside it:
+
+```python
+for sn, (t0, t1) in spans.items():
+    cast = scene_cast.get(sn, [])
+    for t in range(int(t0), int(t1)):
+        timeline[t] = cast
+```
+
+That is the entire mechanism. If X-Ray credits five actors to a 30-second
+scene, all five count as ground truth present for all 30 seconds, including
+seconds where only one of them is on screen. This is not a simplification
+introduced by the pipeline; it is the only reading of X-Ray's data that is
+possible, because X-Ray itself does not record anything finer-grained.
+
+## Why an offscreen name can be scored correct
+
+A name listed under Offscreen with a correct (green) label is not the
+pipeline guessing or padding its score. It is the pipeline correctly
+answering the question X-Ray actually asks: is this actor part of this
+scene. It answers that question using a presence window (`[start, end]`,
+held open across cuts by `anneal_sec` and `extinction_sec`), which matches
+X-Ray's scene-level semantics more closely than a raw per-frame detection
+would.
+
+A system that only reported "this actor is visible in this exact frame"
+would score worse against X-Ray's scene-level ground truth, producing a
+false negative every time the camera cuts away from a character who is
+still present in the scene. Not because it is wrong about the world, but
+because it would be answering a stricter, different question than the one
+X-Ray's data supports. The presence-window design exists specifically to
+answer X-Ray's actual question.
+
+## What this resolves and what it does not
+
+This resolves the semantic mismatch between a scene and an instant. It does
+not resolve two other limitations, both discussed in the
+[LVFace deep dive](lvface-deep-dive.md).
+
+**The face-vs-presence ceiling.** X-Ray credits scene membership regardless
+of whether a face is ever visible: background crew, characters shot from
+behind, voice-only presence. No amount of bridging recovers a face that
+never appears on screen. This is a hard ceiling on recall, not a defect.
+
+**Extinction bridging can overshoot.** The same presence-window mechanism
+that correctly answers "still in this scene" during a normal cut can also
+bridge across a scene boundary it has no way to detect. A hard cut into a
+different scene with no faces, such as closing credits, carries the
+previous scene's identities forward until the window expires. This is the
+mechanism behind Downton Abbey's recall collapse, documented in the deep
+dive.
+
+## Precision, recall, and the misID weighting
+
+Per sampled second `t`:
+
+**TPI** (true positive instances): actors both X-Ray and the pipeline agree
+are present.
+
+**FPI** (false positive instances): actors the pipeline reports that are
+not in X-Ray's cast for this second. Split into two categories:
+
+- **FPI_incast**: the actor is in the film's cast, just not credited to
+  this particular scene. A timing or boundary slip.
+- **FPI_misid**: the actor is not in the film's cast at all. A genuine
+  wrong-identity error, weighted 10x in the precision objective, because
+  naming someone who is not even in the film is a categorically worse
+  error than a few seconds of scene-boundary slop.
+
+!!! note "Every headline `P` and `F1` is misID-weighted"
+
+    The precision reported throughout this report, and therefore the F1
+    derived from it, puts each `FPI_misid` into the denominator **10 times**
+    (`precision = TPI / (TPI + FPI_incast + 10·FPI_misid)`,
+    [`second_score.py`](https://REPOLINK/scripts/optimizer/second_score.py)).
+    This is deliberate: the whole point is to punish naming an out-of-film
+    actor far harder than a scene-boundary slip. But it means the `P` column
+    is not raw precision, and a misID-heavy film's `P` is depressed
+    super-linearly. `second_score.py` also emits an unweighted `precision_raw`
+    (always ≥ the weighted `P`); where the gap matters, The Many Saints of
+    Newark, weighted `P` 54.7% vs. raw 78.4%, the [LVFace deep dive](lvface-deep-dive.md)
+    reports both. When comparing `P` across films, remember you are comparing a
+    quantity that penalizes misIDs, not just a hit rate.
+
+**FN** (false negatives): actors X-Ray lists that the pipeline never
+reports, counted only for actors who have a gallery reference embedding.
+Across the 9-film benchmark, coverage of X-Ray's credited cast ranges from
+20% to 79% by film (see
+[the full experiment log](model-bakeoff.md#gallery-coverage-per-film)); an
+actor with no reference photo can never be recognized regardless of model
+quality, and counting them as a miss would penalize gallery coverage, not
+recognition accuracy.
+
+Two further numbers are reported alongside F1:
+
+**agreement_rate**: mean per-second Jaccard overlap
+(`|Pred ∩ GT| / |Pred ∪ GT|`), partial credit. Naming 2 of 3 present actors
+scores 2/3, not 0.
+
+**exact_match_rate**: the fraction of sampled seconds where the pipeline's
+named set exactly equals X-Ray's, no partial credit. Far harsher, and
+dominated by recall, since any single missed actor zeroes that second.
+
+## Reproduce
+
+```bash
+python3 scripts/optimizer/second_score.py \
+    --pred pred.json --xray experiments/xray/.../<xray_dir> \
+    --gallery experiments/galleries/gallery_LVFace-B_Glint360K.h5
+```
+
+See also [the full experiment log](model-bakeoff.md) for how `pred.json` is
+produced, and the [LVFace deep dive](lvface-deep-dive.md) for what these
+mechanisms look like frame by frame.