feat: registry owns correlation discounting (AR-024, AR-025)

Moves two responsibilities inside the registry that callers should never have
been trusted with.

AR-025 — per-frame evidence is discounted for correlation by the registry
itself, via EvidenceDiscounter. Log-odds accumulation is only valid for
independent observations, and consecutive frames of one track are anything but:
near-identical pose, lighting and expression. Accumulated naively, thirty frames
of the same face at the same angle drive the posterior to certainty on what is
effectively one measurement.

Each observation is weighted by how much it adds — a view already contributed
counts for ~nothing, a genuinely new pose counts in full. This reuses the
novelty judgement gallery expansion already makes rather than inventing a second
one. The discounter is a separate class the registry holds, so it stays testable
and swappable, but it is a constructor argument rather than an option: there is
no correct way to accumulate without it.

AR-024 — observe() takes a calibrated probability and converts to log-odds
internally. A caller can no longer hand it a raw cosine, which would have been
silently wrong rather than obviously so. Retiring the remaining raw-cosine
constants in the tracker is still open.

DeadTrack now reports effective_obs alongside observations: the raw count and
the evidence that actually counted. A large gap between them is a track the
camera stared at, and worth seeing.

Three tests, one of which is the point: two tracks given the same number of
observations at the same posterior, one repeating a single view and one seeing
eight distinct ones, must not end up equally confident. Without discounting they
would be identical.

Fixed a test that asserted a belief swap on tied evidence. A tie leaves
ownership where it is — a challenger must out-accumulate the incumbent, since
one contrary observation is noise. The original test passed only because it fed
raw log-odds directly.

Suite: 78 cases, 3245 assertions. Coverage 20/63 to 22/63.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

TRACES: AR-024, AR-025 | SR-002
This commit is contained in:
2026-07-31 09:15:44 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent f0c7126f80
commit 843852e19c
5 changed files with 253 additions and 50 deletions
+101 -24
View File
@@ -11,6 +11,9 @@
#include <catch2/catch_test_macros.hpp>
#include "track_registry.hpp"
#include "evidence_discount.hpp"
#include <algorithm>
#include <vector>
@@ -34,6 +37,12 @@ struct Sink {
}
};
// A discounter whose calibration is deliberately trivial, so the tests exercise
// registry behaviour rather than a fitted sigmoid.
EvidenceDiscounter disc() {
return EvidenceDiscounter([](float cos) { return std::max(0.f, cos); });
}
TrackRegistry::Config cfg(double extinction = 5.0, float own = 2.0f) {
TrackRegistry::Config c;
c.extinction_sec = extinction;
@@ -45,7 +54,7 @@ TrackRegistry::Config cfg(double extinction = 5.0, float own = 2.0f) {
// ── AR-012 — the change this whole redesign exists for ───────────────────────
TEST_CASE("window starts at first sighting, not at first recognition", "[registry][AR-012]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg());
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
@@ -58,7 +67,7 @@ TEST_CASE("window starts at first sighting, not at first recognition", "[registr
auto f = reg.begin_frame(t);
f.mark_seen(id, t, axis(0));
}
reg.observe(id, 7, 5.0f);
reg.observe(id, 7, 0.99f, axis(7));
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(31.0); f.mark_lost(id, 30.0); }
reg.tick(40.0);
@@ -72,12 +81,12 @@ TEST_CASE("window starts at first sighting, not at first recognition", "[registr
// ── AR-013 — the asymmetry that removes the old over-claim ───────────────────
TEST_CASE("interior gaps are absorbed; the trailing cool-down is not",
"[registry][AR-013]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/5.0));
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/5.0), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); id = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 3, 5.0f);
reg.observe(id, 3, 0.99f, axis(3));
// Off screen at 10, back at 13 — inside the timeout, so the same track
// continues and the actor is claimed present *through* the gap.
@@ -96,12 +105,12 @@ TEST_CASE("interior gaps are absorbed; the trailing cool-down is not",
}
TEST_CASE("a gap past the timeout yields two tracks, not one", "[registry][AR-013]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/5.0));
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/5.0), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int a;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); a = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(a, 1, 5.0f);
reg.observe(a, 1, 0.99f, axis(1));
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(10.0); f.mark_lost(a, 10.0); }
reg.tick(30.0); // well past extinction
@@ -117,12 +126,12 @@ TEST_CASE("a gap past the timeout yields two tracks, not one", "[registry][AR-01
// ── AR-016 — the silent-loss guard ───────────────────────────────────────────
TEST_CASE("EOF flush closes tracks still on screen", "[registry][AR-016]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg());
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(100.0); id = f.create(100.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 5, 5.0f);
reg.observe(id, 5, 0.99f, axis(5));
// A film almost always ends with faces on screen; these have not timed out.
reg.flush(/*final_ts=*/120.0);
@@ -139,12 +148,12 @@ TEST_CASE("EOF flush closes tracks still on screen", "[registry][AR-016]") {
TEST_CASE("flush closes a lost-but-unreaped track at its last sighting",
"[registry][AR-016]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/60.0));
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/60.0), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); id = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 2, 5.0f);
reg.observe(id, 2, 0.99f, axis(2));
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(10.0); f.mark_lost(id, 10.0); }
reg.flush(/*final_ts=*/50.0);
@@ -154,15 +163,18 @@ TEST_CASE("flush closes a lost-but-unreaped track at its last sighting",
// ── AR-014 — belief swap is a track boundary, not a correction ───────────────
TEST_CASE("belief swap closes one window and opens another", "[registry][AR-014]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg());
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); id = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 1, 4.0f); // owned by actor 1
reg.observe(id, 1, 0.99f, axis(1)); // owned by actor 1
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(5.0); f.mark_lost(id, 5.0); }
reg.observe(id, 2, 12.0f); // belief swings decisively to 2
// The swap must out-accumulate the incumbent, not merely tie it: one
// contrary observation is noise, and a tie leaves ownership where it is.
reg.observe(id, 2, 0.99f, axis(2));
reg.observe(id, 2, 0.99f, axis(3));
CHECK(reg.belief_swaps() == 1);
REQUIRE(sink.claims.size() == 1);
@@ -179,29 +191,29 @@ TEST_CASE("belief swap closes one window and opens another", "[registry][AR-014]
// ── AR-015 — identity contradiction as a cut detector ────────────────────────
TEST_CASE("two live tracks owned by one actor is counted", "[registry][AR-015]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg());
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int a, b;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); a = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); b = f.create(0.0, axis(1)); }
reg.observe(a, 9, 5.0f);
reg.observe(a, 9, 0.99f, axis(9));
CHECK(reg.actor_conflicts() == 0);
// One person cannot be in two places at once, so this is a missed camera or
// scene change that split them — detected on the update that causes it.
reg.observe(b, 9, 5.0f);
reg.observe(b, 9, 0.99f, axis(9));
CHECK(reg.actor_conflicts() == 1);
}
// ── AR-017 / diagnostics ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
TEST_CASE("an unowned track emits no claim", "[registry][AR-012]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg());
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); id = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 4, 0.5f); // never clears the ownership threshold
reg.observe(id, 4, 0.62f, axis(4)); // never clears the ownership threshold
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(1.0); f.mark_lost(id, 1.0); }
reg.tick(100.0);
@@ -211,12 +223,12 @@ TEST_CASE("an unowned track emits no claim", "[registry][AR-012]") {
}
TEST_CASE("claims carry the belief that justified them", "[registry][AR-017]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg());
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); id = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 6, 4.0f);
reg.observe(id, 6, 0.99f, axis(6));
reg.flush(1.0);
REQUIRE(sink.claims.size() == 1);
@@ -225,7 +237,7 @@ TEST_CASE("claims carry the belief that justified them", "[registry][AR-017]") {
}
TEST_CASE("a vote for a reaped track is dropped and counted", "[registry][AR-013]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/1.0));
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(/*extinction=*/1.0), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
@@ -235,17 +247,17 @@ TEST_CASE("a vote for a reaped track is dropped and counted", "[registry][AR-013
// The matcher runs downstream of the tracker, so a late vote is expected.
// Silently ignoring it would hide a timeout shorter than the matcher's lag.
reg.observe(id, 3, 5.0f);
reg.observe(id, 3, 0.99f, axis(3));
CHECK(reg.dropped_votes() == 1);
}
TEST_CASE("a single-frame track yields a zero-length window", "[registry][AR-012]") {
TrackRegistry reg(cfg());
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(42.0); id = f.create(42.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 8, 5.0f);
reg.observe(id, 8, 0.99f, axis(8));
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(43.0); f.mark_lost(id, 42.0); }
reg.tick(100.0);
@@ -253,3 +265,68 @@ TEST_CASE("a single-frame track yields a zero-length window", "[registry][AR-012
CHECK(sink.claims[0].first_seen == 42.0);
CHECK(sink.claims[0].last_seen == 42.0);
}
// ── AR-025 — correlated observations must not accumulate as independent ──────
TEST_CASE("repeated identical views do not reach the certainty of distinct ones",
"[registry][AR-025]") {
// Thirty frames of the same face at the same angle is not thirty pieces of
// evidence. Without discounting, log-odds accumulate linearly and the
// posterior saturates on what is effectively a single measurement.
TrackRegistry same(cfg(), disc());
TrackRegistry varied(cfg(), disc());
Sink s_same, s_varied;
s_same.attach(same);
s_varied.attach(varied);
int a, b;
{ auto f = same.begin_frame(0.0); a = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
{ auto f = varied.begin_frame(0.0); b = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
for (int i = 0; i < 8; ++i) {
same.observe(a, 1, 0.9f, axis(0)); // the identical view, every time
varied.observe(b, 1, 0.9f, axis(i + 1)); // a genuinely new look each time
}
same.flush(1.0);
varied.flush(1.0);
REQUIRE(s_same.claims.size() == 1);
REQUIRE(s_varied.claims.size() == 1);
// Same raw observation count, but only the varied track earned the evidence.
CHECK(s_same.claims[0].observations == s_varied.claims[0].observations);
CHECK(s_same.claims[0].effective_obs < s_varied.claims[0].effective_obs);
CHECK(s_same.claims[0].effective_obs < 2.0f); // ~one view's worth
}
TEST_CASE("the first observation on a track always counts in full",
"[registry][AR-025]") {
// There is nothing for it to be redundant with.
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); id = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 1, 0.9f, axis(0));
reg.flush(1.0);
REQUIRE(sink.claims.size() == 1);
CHECK(sink.claims[0].effective_obs == 1.0f);
}
TEST_CASE("the registry takes a probability, not a cosine", "[registry][AR-024]") {
// A posterior at the decision boundary must not move belief at all: 0.5
// carries no information either way, and its log-odds are zero. Feeding a
// raw cosine here would be silently wrong rather than obviously so, which
// is why the conversion lives inside the registry.
TrackRegistry reg(cfg(), disc());
Sink sink; sink.attach(reg);
int id;
{ auto f = reg.begin_frame(0.0); id = f.create(0.0, axis(0)); }
reg.observe(id, 1, 0.5f, axis(0));
reg.flush(1.0);
REQUIRE(sink.claims.size() == 1);
CHECK(sink.claims[0].actor_idx == -1); // never owned
}