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dtourolle ea922356f1 docs: archive the July 2026 report; new methodology for the opencv5 run
The July report (4-model ArcFace/LVFace bake-off, pre-opencv5 framework,
3-film training + held-out validation) is superseded by the opencv5 build:
single-model LVFace-B, a 6-knob DE sweep over all 9 films, flood-fill
presence, and the registry/decode fixes. Rather than overwrite it, archive
it date-suffixed and start the current report fresh.

- Rename the six July result pages to *-2026-07.md, rewrite their
  intra-archive cross-links, and add an "Archived (July 2026)" banner to each.
- mkdocs nav: current report at top, the July set under an Archive section.
- New docs/methodology.md for the opencv5 run: corrects the withdrawn
  anneal_sec/extinction_sec presence bridging (windows are now
  [first_seen, last_seen], AR-012/013), documents the two presence modes
  (track_extent / flood), and records that every eval scores all 9 films.

The current experiment log (model-bakeoff.md) and Home rewrite land once
the DE sweep converges and the final optimum is known.
2026-08-09 10:48:45 +02:00

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Archived (July 2026). This report covers the pre-opencv5 framework and the 4-model ArcFace/LVFace bake-off. It is superseded by the current experiment log for the opencv5 build. Kept for provenance; the numbers here are historical.

Which embedding model is best?

Three ArcFace variants (w600k-R50, R18, w600k-MBF) and LVFace-B (Glint360K, 455MB) were compared. r50 is excluded from the training/held-out comparison below; its gallery has roughly 30% fewer reference images per actor than the other three on the identical source photos, which confounds a direct score comparison (see the full experiment log for detail). It remains in the calibration comparison, which does not depend on the gallery image count.

First signal: calibration curves

Each gallery carries a fitted Platt sigmoid P(match | cosine similarity) = σ(a·sim + b), stored directly in the gallery HDF5 (src/gallery/gallery_calibration.hpp). This is a property of the embedding space alone, computed from intra- and inter-actor reference-image pairs with no tracking or scene logic involved, so it is a clean first read on discriminative power before running a benchmark.

Calibrated P(match|similarity) for all four models

model a (steepness) boundary at P=0.5
LVFace-B Glint360K 17.7 sim 0.228
ArcFace w600k-MBF 16.2 sim 0.267
ArcFace w600k-R50 15.4 sim 0.301
ArcFace R18 15.3 sim 0.309

LVFace has both the steepest transition and the lowest decision boundary, separating same-actor from different-actor reference pairs more confidently at a lower similarity than any ArcFace variant.

Second signal: held-out F1

Each model's own tuned full_exp config, replayed against the 5 films the optimizer never saw and scored the same way:

film LVFace F1 mbf F1 r18 F1
Benny & Joon 83.0% 78.5% 77.1%
Lovelace 77.5% 73.7% 72.2%
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 74.1% 70.2% 71.0%
Downton Abbey: A New Era 56.2% 55.0% 53.0%
The Many Saints of Newark 46.3% 44.5% 42.1%
macro average 67.4% 64.4% 63.1%

LVFace scores highest on all 5 held-out films; the ranking never flips between models. Total misID count across the 5 films: LVFace 1032, mbf 2197, r18 1224. LVFace has less than half mbf's misID total and still scores higher on every film.

Held-out results are stronger evidence than training results, because training numbers can reflect what the optimizer was tuned to fit rather than general performance. On training data, the ordering is not as clean:

film LVFace F1 mbf F1 r18 F1 best
Café Society 68.1% 62.2% 60.1% LVFace
Lord of War 75.6% 77.2% 75.6% mbf
Scarface 71.5% 68.6% 64.1% LVFace
Sound of Metal 78.8% 76.5% 71.6% LVFace

mbf beats LVFace on Lord of War (77.2% vs 75.6%), the only film in either table where LVFace does not score highest. LVFace's training-set macro average (75.3%, see the full experiment log) is not a uniform win across every film it contributes to; the held-out result, where LVFace wins all 5 films outright, is the stronger claim.

This reverses an earlier, superseded benchmarking pass that used a scene-union metric and found the three models statistically indistinguishable (around 85% each), concluding LVFace was not worth its size. That metric masked out-of-cast false positives behind a gallery-intersect-cast recall filter; the per-second metric used here does not.

Full training-matrix picture

All 12 combos ranked by training-set F1

Best full-gallery combo per model (all three are full_exp), from the training matrix in the full experiment log:

model F1 P R misID
LVFace-B Glint360K 75.3% 89.7% 65.4% 232
ArcFace w600k-MBF 72.0% 87.7% 61.4% 240
ArcFace R18 69.1% 87.6% 57.7% 242

LVFace leads within both the restricted and full gallery modes, visible directly in the chart above without reading the table. The three models' misID counts on the full gallery are nearly identical (232/240/242); LVFace's lead here is a precision-and-recall lead, not a misID one.

Operational note

Switching the default embedder is not a config change alone; the gallery is model-specific, since embeddings from different models are not comparable. Any existing gallery built against a different model must be rebuilt from source images before the new default takes effect. scripts/optimizer/reembed_gallery.py does this from a reference gallery's cached source images without re-downloading anything.